But do not worry - We have tried everything and chewed so that understanding of science degree is not required! We will not be deadly bore you with formulas and statistics - You do this all the hate, right? Therefore, analyze it easily. Do you agree? Then, way!
Here you cook your own breakfast. Your eyes are not yet razliplis, and on the floor somewhere did the water come ... In general, the You fly in one direction, but nice sandwich with butter - to another.
So: what are your chances that it falls butter side down? "Murphy's Law" take into consideration will not, otherwise you can just do forget about the statistics. We will assume that sandwich still 2 sides for each of the which it may fall. I hope We will not argue that the chances of having a oil spot on the carpet 50/50 - that is equal.
At this time, because you are "lucky" sandwich down with oil up.
Lesson 1 is completed. That Complicated?
You cannot pick up a sandwich He blows the chips and hair and return it to the plate. It was during this time your dog something urgently needed in the corridor, where it runs at a breakneck pace. You desperately looking for a sandwich which again goes to journey.So - what is now the odds that it would foul the floor to you?
If you think that the 50/50 we can assume that you have learned the lesson 2. (This lesson is more important than you might think. This knowledge could save you a lot of wasted money.)
Does your sandwich is still 2 sides and one of them still buttered. This means that there is still a chance of two that spot will appear on your floor!Because, that sandwich the first time oil has fallen upward he will not fall for the second time butter side down.
Do you have a happy day today! Again he falls butter up. Thankful that have not decided to have breakfast cereal with milk.
Thus, previous results do not influence the next. This lesson 2. A simple thing, this theory of probability, right?
What do you mean my chances of winning the lottery?
Okay, Let's move on to the balls. If you submit such an idiotic lottery in which only 2 balls and one of them falls in lotomashine - What are your chances to win this game? Same like a sandwich, correctly. One chance out of two. And of course, If last week fell ball number 1, then there is no more likely to today that number will drop the ball 2 right? The odds remain the same - 50/50! Along the way, note: there is an entire "industry" built around the theory "Good" and "bad" numbers. People believe Some numbers fall with greater or lesser probability. They explore the historical results to predict the future. But we know previous results have no effect on subsequent! Pretty stupid get 'industry', If you think about. |
More balls please!
All right. Let's see what happens if we add one ball. It's just - opportunities will now be one of the three right?Now, if the pot will fall out not 1, and by two of the three ball.
Becomes more difficult. It may seem that the chances of 2 out of 3, but it is not. See - it's all possible combinations:
| Ball 1 | 01 | 01 | 02 | 02 | 03 | 03 |
| Ball 2 | 02 | 03 | 03 | 01 | 01 | 02 |
Wait a minute! Have you noticed this? When it comes to normal lottery not matter in which order the numbers drop - important that they coincided with marked on the ticket - right? It seems to me You deserved cup of coffee.
Thus, if you look at the numbers in the table you will notice that 1.2 is essentially the same as 1.2! If this were the winning numbers, You would take the jackpot with any of these combinations. That is, each combination can really fall in two ways: 01 and then 03 or 03 and then 01 - and so on. Surprised yes? What do you mean "no"? :)
You have developed a secret formula for calculating the odds of winning!
No seriously! You have calculated that there are 6 possible combinations 3 balls. Then taken out, that each combination of the two can vyvast ways - so as not important, in what order the numbers fall. It remains the last - divide the 6 combinations of 2 ways of their loss - and get 3! This is your chance to win in a lottery: one in three!Now you can rightfully call himself a student lottery statistics.
More balloons!
Pour yourself another cup of coffee. It's time to take a chance. Now we move on to the lottery, where the ball will drop 3 of 4. Uhhhh. Patience student soon we'll get to the circulation of "6 out of 49"!
So. If we write down all the possible combinations of 4 balls how many?
Okay, do it for you ...
| ball 1 | 01 | 01 | 01 | 01 | 01 | 01 | 02 | 02 | 02 | 02 | 02 | 02 |
| ball 2 | 02 | 02 | 03 | 03 | 04 | 04 | 01 | 01 | 03 | 03 | 04 | 04 |
| ball 3 | 03 | 04 | 02 | 04 | 02 | 03 | 03 | 04 | 01 | 04 | 01 | 03 |
|
Now look more closely, as in the previous lottery - repeated many times each set of balls. For example, how many times set 01/02/03 (In any order)? I counted six. Now apply your magic formula: 24 divided by the combined loss of 6 ways each - we get 4! In other words - Your chances in the lottery are 1 in 4.
We'll see though, what happens if we add one more ball.
Thus, We're giving away 3 is still a ball but already out of 5 balls. Now, even I will not write all the combinations. But I will teach you the same sly method to calculate the number of possible combinations for any number of balls. All you have to do 5 x 4 x 3 = 60 combinations.
So how does it work?
Very simple. Start with the largest number and multiply by one the following. And so many times how many balls should fall. In our case - 3 times.
For example, if played 2 balls out of 3 the formula would look like this: 3 x 2 = 6.
If the ball falls 3 of 4 then we have a 4 x 3 x 2 = 24.
Class, true?
Now let's see how many combinations in a real lottery.
Most of us have played the lottery, where 49 different numbers played 6. This means:
49 x 48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44 = 10.068.347.520
A huge number of combinations!
But do not be afraid. Do not forget that the order rate is not important to us!
Here's another little secret for counting repetitive sequences: 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 720.
You can check this formula to our previous examples. Easy however, if you know a few secrets.
So what are my chances of winning the lottery?
You're almost getting to the answer. It remains only to divide 10,068,347,520 by 720 and get about 1 in 13,983,816.
That's why you do not win the jackpot every week! Congratulations, that 've read this far and still not fall asleep! If you drink at least 3 cups coffee I'm impressed:)
How to increase your chances of winning
The first method - is to play less but the same number of tickets used in the same edition. 5 tickets in one draw have more chance than one ticket every week in different runs. It's true. Although it is not so interesting how to play each week, but the chances more realistic. It is easy to calculate that buying two tickets instead of one in one print run, You double your chances. 1 out of 14 million is not 2 of 14 million, as 2 out of 14 million - is the same as that of a 7 million !
Also do not forget that in addition to the jackpot There are prizes for 5 and 4 and 3 guessed numbers. Your chances of winning the lottery is not so bad as seem at first glance.
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